Ledger League
A forecasting game for Orrery members. Call dated milestones in technology and the economy, say how sure you are, and climb a leaderboard that runs in the brief.
Season 1
January 4 to March 31, 2027
Starts in 54 days.
How a season works
Questions open
New questions appear in the brief through the season. Each one names a milestone, a deadline and the public source that will settle it.
You make your call
Answer with a probability from 1% to 99%. You can change it until the question locks, usually a week after it opens.
We settle it
When the deadline passes, we check the source and score every answer by the same rule.
The board updates
The leaderboard runs in the brief every week. Your season score is your average across every question in the season.
Scoring
Each answer earns up to 100 points. Points are 100 × (1 − (p − outcome)²), where p is your probability and the outcome is 1 if it happened and 0 if it didn't.
Being right matters, and so does knowing how sure to be. A confident miss costs far more than a cautious one.
Skip a question and you get 75 points, the same as answering 50%. You can't climb by answering only the easy ones.
| Your call | If it happens | If it doesn't |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | 75 | 75 |
| 70% | 91 | 51 |
| 90% | 99 | 19 |
| 99% | 100 | 2 |
Badges
Every season has its own digital badge, shown next to your name on the leaderboard. Finish in the top 10 and you earn the gold one.
Badges are digital only. There's nothing to buy or ship. Past badges stay on your record. Leave mid-season and you drop off that season's board.
Ground rules
- No questions about where a stock price will go.
- No cash prizes and no entry fee. The League comes with every plan.
- One entry per member. You choose the name we show.
- We may remove a name that impersonates someone or breaks these rules.
- The League is a skill game about where things are heading. It isn't investment advice.
Launch Nights
Space fans already gather for launches. Launch Nights give members a place to do it with context.
During major launches, we run a live thread with what's flying, who paid for it, what the last attempt taught, and which Ledger forecasts ride on the result. The link goes out in the brief on launch day.
Included in every plan.
Members and Insiders all play. Season 1 questions arrive in the brief on January 4.